Is It Worth Paying For NFL Picks?
It may seem easy from the outside but once fans start wagering on NFL games, they will quickly realize how difficult it is to make a profit in sports betting. Consistently beating the oddsmakers is an incredibly difficult task no matter who you are. Sometimes, sports bettors will get on a hot streak and on a run, but other times they cannot seem to pick an outcome correctly if their life depended on it.
It can be a frustrating way to try to make a living or just to make a few extra dollars. That’s why some sports bettors decide to pay for picks. Bettors will pay to use the gambling picks from somebody who specializes in the NFL to earn a profit.
Before you decide to go this route, several options need to be considered.
- Is there a surefire NFL tout/expert out there that can guarantee a profit?
- Can you trust paid touts to give you better lines/advice than yourself/free services?
- Are there any touts who are actually better than others?
- Is it worth it for any NFL bettor — casual, amateur, high volume, pro — to buy picks? If so, whose picks should you buy? How much are they worth?
To answer each of these questions and help you get a better understanding of the questions above, read the rest of this post so you can make an informed decision on whether or not you should pay for NFL picks this upcoming season.
What does “buy” NFL picks mean?
Buying NFL picks or “NFL picks against the spread”means you are handing over money in exchange for winning gambling picks. The expert did all the research and claims to have a winner, and all the bettor has to do is pay the fee for the picks and place the wager. It’s possible you’ve seen these advertised on sports websites or on social media sites.
Some places will offer single game picks, a range of picks and even a week’s slate of matchups. It’s up to you, the sports bettor, to determine whether the NFL research done by the expert is worth paying for.
What is an NFL tout?
An NFL tout is simply somebody who offers themselves up as an expert on the sport in providing picks and information. A tout can come in many different forms, whether they’re a nationally known talent in sports media or a successful expert who flies under the radar.
Sports radio personality Dan Patrick has consistently had one of the most successful national radio programs in the country for many years. During the football season, his show talks a lot about the NFL and occasionally he will give his predictions whether it’s a futures Super Bowl pick or a key upcoming matchup. Technically, he is considered a tout.
Steve Fezzik is one of the most successful sports bettors, and he makes most of his money betting on the NFL. He remains the only bettor to ever win the prestigious SuperContest twice. He did it in 2008 and again in 2009, which helped him become one of the best-known sports bettors.
The difference between the two is Patrick is in the business of building a large audience across the country and people can see his predictions just by following his show or social media accounts for free,. Meanwhile, Fezzik is in the business of charging sports bettors for the right to see his predictions on a particular game or set of games.
It’s up to the sports bettor to decide if purchasing NFL expert picks is worth it financially.
What are NFL pick services?
Sports bettors have the opportunity to pay for picks from a single person like Fezzik, but they can also spend money on a picks service. Some sports betting companies offer a chance for gamblers to pay for their services, which could include a variety of options.
An NFL picks service may deliver next-level analysis and statistical information that is hard to find elsewhere to give sports bettors an advantage over the rest of the betting public. Also included in the subscription fee may be actual picks to make.
It’s up to the bettor to decide if they’d like to pay for picks. If they choose to go that route, they can either pay for an individual’s expert opinion or picks made by a company. Track record is important when making these decisions.
Should a tout be NFL-exclusive or can they also do other sports?
Because the NFL is far and away the most popular sport to bet on in the United States, a lot of the money that can be made as an expert comes from offering pro football picks. The NFL uniquely has a relatively short season and several months where no games are played with an offseason that starts in early February and ends in early September.
In those seven months off, it makes sense that experts might take on opportunities with other sports. While most of their focus will be on the NFL, since it generates the most attention from sports bettors, many experts will venture off into other popular betting opportunities like college basketball’s NCAA Tournament once the Super Bowl ends. Some will also provide picks for payment during the college football season, that is another popular sport to bet on.
On the other side, some touts will stick strictly to the NFL. Those people can market their picks by saying they focus on the NFL all year round without the distractions of any other sport. Their exclusivity to providing NFL tout picks could make potential subscribers more interested in paying for their expertise.
Which is a better system? Like everything in sports betting, it’s up to the person placing the wager to decide. It all comes down to the success of the individual expert. If a tout has a pay-for-picks website that features multiple sports and is successful, it obviously makes sense to follow that person’s picks over somebody who exclusively covers the NFL but struggles to produce consistent winners.
Should I consider using NFL touts/picks?
When deciding whether or not to pay money in exchange for sports betting picks, you’ll need to consider a number of options to make a smart decision. You also need to determine what type of NFL bettor you are.
If you are going into an NFL weekend as a casual bettor who’s made the decision to place a wager on the biggest game on the schedule, subscribing for picks might not be worth it for a long-term profit. On the other hand, if you are in for a large volume of bets, it could make sense to gain a boost from an NFL betting expert you trust.
You should determine how many games you plan to bet on and how much you plan on budgeting for a typical NFL weekend. Understand the basic nuances of betting and how much free time you have to invest in research and developing your own NFL betting strategy.
If you realize you do not have the time or motivation to dig in to the advanced metrics to gain the best advantage on the oddsmakers, maybe paying for somebody to provide the research for you is the way to go. However, if you enjoy the process of preparing for an NFL weekend and like the hustle of trying to develop your own system, you probably wouldn’t be in favor of paying somebody else to do the work for you.
- Pros for paying for picks: research is done for you, and you should be able to tell if the system is successful or not.
- Cons for paying for picks: it’s hard enough to earn a profit betting on the NFL and you’ll need to do even better to offset the cost of a subscription.
First and foremost, when choosing a tout to follow, make sure you research the reputation of the person or group offering picks before you decide to invest in their strategies and bets.
Free NFL picks vs. paid picks
The large boom in the sports betting industry has its pros and cons for bettors who have been placing wagers for decades. For one thing, oddsmakers need to be even better at their jobs, and there is also a lot more information out there with some of the major sports media companies dipping their toes into the gambling space.
With the large amount of interest in NFL betting now more than ever, information can be found at a variety of locations, many of which are completely free for sports bettors to consume. Because of this, you do not necessarily need to pay top dollar for information as much anymore. If you want sports betting content on any of the major sports, there are likely several places to find gambling information on that particular event.
However, if you find an expert who produces consistent winning results year after year and you deem the advice worth paying for, go for it.
Are any NFL pick experts licensed?
No. Anybody can go around calling themselves an NFL betting expert, which is why you’ll need to be careful when choosing a tout to follow. Anybody with a social media account can declare themselves a sports betting expert and promise unrealistic outcomes.
It’s up to the sports bettor to do their due diligence before paying for gambling picks.
What should I look for in a trusted NFL handicapper/expert?
If you’ve decided you need a bit of an edge on the oddsmakers by using an NFL betting expert, you need to know what you’re looking for in a reliable tout. Before you decide to spend your money anywhere, it’s smart to get your research done beforehand.
Here are a few things to identify:
- Consistent results: No matter who the person is calling themselves an NFL betting expert, they’re going to let users know how well they have done in the past. What separates the best in the business from the rest is being able to prove their consistent winning. If they cannot do that, you’re better off looking elsewhere.
- Public trust: Getting a feel for the NFL betting expert can be as simple as crowdsourcing information on social media. Sports bettors are likely to check out a variety of touts to see what’s best for them, and the industry somewhat polices itself in that way. If a particular expert is caught doing something shady or untrustworthy, it could be a big hit to their business if called out on it by a user.
- Transparency: Nobody is perfect in any walk of life, so why would you expect your NFL betting expert to be? Sports betting is an incredibly difficult way to make money, and your tout is going to make bad predictions. The uncertainty is why we love sports. If your expert is willing to admit when they’re wrong, that should only build your trust in them since you likely understand how hard it is to make a profit betting on the NFL.
Make sure you check out these three things before deciding where to place your money for your NFL gambling picks.
What claims should I be wary of from an NFL “expert”?
You just learned what to look for when shopping for picks and information. Now let’s look at some of the potential red flags to avoid.
- Unrealistic promises: Promises in the NFL betting industry could be red flags in themselves, but avoid people or companies that will promise an outlandish outcome. Everybody loses sometimes in sports betting so if the expert claims to never lose, that means you should take anything they say with a grain of salt. If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.
- Playing both sides: This is a tricky one to identify, but it’s something that should get around quickly once it gets noticed. Some touts who sell their picks could give you advice on one side of the bet, then turn around and give somebody else the exact opposite pick. This way at least half of their users will be satisfied, resulting in happier customers and more business. It’s an unfortunate reality that this still happens.
- Unprofessional platforms: Something as simple as a website that has tons of pop-up ads that could wreck your computer is a big red flag. Like any business you intend to send your money to, it’s important to know the company performs in a professional manner, no matter the industry.
If any of these items apply or you just have a bad gut feeling about the expert or company, shop elsewhere with your money.
Should you trust a “lock” pick from an NFL “expert”?
Even before sports betting inched its way closer to the mainstream, sports media analysts declared their guaranteed locks of the week. There is no such thing as a guaranteed pick. We watch sports because it’s the ultimate reality show, and surprises and upsets happen on a regular basis.
If you decide to bet on a particular NFL team because an analyst declared them his or her lock of the week on the pregame show, unexpected things may happen. For example, if the starting quarterback gets hurt on the first drive, that lock from the NFL expert is no longer valid.
Some games may seem obvious and if they are, go ahead and bet them. However, never put all your eggs in one basket when it comes to gambling on the NFL.
Do most NFL experts win more or lose more?
It’s different from expert to expert, but in most cases NFL touts likely lose more than they win. It’s not a huge knock on those who charge for picks, but it’s just very difficult to maintain success against the oddsmakers. Typically if you’re betting the same amount on point spreads that are set at -110, you’ll need to predict games correctly more than 52.4% of the time to earn a profit because of the vig.
Even if every NFL pick against the spread isn’t a winner, some of the subscription sites are more geared toward providing you analytical stats to give you an edge rather than just handing over a betting tip without any analysis. That’s where subscription sites could find value, and you don’t have to follow every single bet your preferred expert suggests. Picking and choosing could lead to a better chance at returning a profit.
Regular season picks vs. playoff picks
As mentioned earlier, people love to bet on NFL games as the most popular sport in the United States. Sportsbooks see quite a bit of volume of bets during the regular season but with a limited slate of games, action comes in rapidly on playoff games, especially the Super Bowl — the mecca of sports betting.
Is there likely to be a huge difference in an expert’s opinion whether it’s a playoff or regular season game? Probably not, but there are some touts who excel in the postseason, when games matter the most. Identifying a particular expert’s record over years of data points gambling on the postseason could be valuable.
Now that you know the basics and what paying for NFL picks entails, the choice is yours to identify whether or not you’d like to do your own research for free or pay money in exchange for additional information, tips, or advice. Every sports bettor has their own way of going about their business, so it’s up to you to determine your process in your ongoing effort to earn a profit.